In the TV series Numb3rs, the brother of an FBI agent -a mathematician from a university -is used as a consultant -to solve crimes – to predict the actions of the criminal, or to map out the area of his safe zone during his crimes or his victims, And it takes a lot of factors in order the proper equation to work. Time, place, acceleration, speed, frequency, and such. And this is needed to predict or trapped a criminal in his next move.
In a game of chess – besides being proficient with your defense and offense strategies -one must know the habits and favorite strategies of the opponent -and his favorite teachers -current or historical. Using both his imagination and logical and mathematical intelligence -one can beat his opponent – 2 or 3 steps or more ahead of the actual game. There are many Ai machines created to simulate the inner workings of humans’ minds -to beat the greatest living grandmaster of the game. Another proof that mimicking and predicting the human mind is not an easy feat. Not just in the realm of pure math.
I will not go into a comparison of foreign survey companies or the historical records of survey companies like Pulse Asia, Octa Research, or even Social Weather Station for the past 20 years or so. Some are more reliable than others -but most cannot explain the surge on the day of the election – so they use post-election exit surveys -which we cannot verify 100% if this is based on live or ground data or just following the result of the votes counted, or their methods, or their source of answers. We need them to be more transparent in their methods and the raw data they gathered -and I don’t see these organizations doing it willingly in the future.
As in social media platforms -like Google, Facebook, Twitter -there should be legislation to regulate -not ban, the use of election surveys -which is not just about the freedom of the press and the electorate -but is now meant to defeat the sovereign will of citizens -by being brainwashed by the bandwagon effect. Instead of leveling the playing field -these politicians and their public relations experts are weaponizing surveys and statistics against their opponents. We can start by requiring them to publish their questions, methods, identity or at least pictures of their interviewers, sponsors of such surveys – and print in 2-4 major newspapers . So it is not just charts and numbers -but something that all cans scrutinize and learn from it. This will immediately stop the mindless bandwagon effect -since citizens will be using their critical faculties in analyzing the data . Unless this is done -said surveys are just tools to fool our countrymen.
And as I said before -2400 or 3000 persons surveyed in our archipelagic nation -will never reflect the will of 55M to 65M voters. If it is true -then why go through the electoral process with its cost? It will be cheaper to just get a survey -and decide on our leaders through it. But you know that this is absurd and mocks the idea of representative government -a republic. Some surveys are being used by those with autocratic or elitist tendencies. They envisioned a society where their kind will know what the mass of people needs and govern accordingly -without their consent or their ideas on how to solve the nation’s problems.
As for the bandwagon effect -yes, we do ask our barangay officials and friends and associates – and we weigh in their answers and advice -but it is not the blind reliance on the pseudo-omniscience of the surveying organizations. We can verify their suggestions based on our experiences in the local situation. Not on supposed achievements created out of thin air or grabbed from others.
It is true that we do use surveys -especially for understanding historical trends and hope we can deduce from that -future consumption or preferences of people. This is how producers of hamburgers, laundry powder, soft drinks, beauty soap, or cars use this data in their marketing and their business plans. But it still depends on the type of questions asked, factors considered in the questions, and the source of the data. Mere thousands of people do not reflect the freedom of a million people.
That is why marketing strategies are still not 100 % exact. They do allow a 3-5% margin of error -based on the previous pattern. They are all mental constructs by men trying to have a grasp on the choices of millions of consumers. The better the mind who created the survey and its questions, format, and factors -the better the survey result will be of utility for the marketing company or arm of the manufacturer. We must understand -that many manufacturers do not rely on these marketing surveys in creating their products. They directly ask their customers what they exactly needed.
Some companies use surveys to protect or improve their product and services -so that customers or consumers will have fewer negative experiences and avoid future transfers to their competitors. However -if the surveying company did not make a pre-survey meeting or conference with their client -they might ask the wrong questions or frame them differently which will lead them astray from their intended focus. It can give them interpreted data -that is shallow or clouded.
I am more concerned about the question of the freedom of man and God’s sovereignty over temporal matters. Especially in civil government. It is easy for surveying companies to simplify their questions and thus neglect other factors that citizens of a country consider when voting for their democratic leaders. Most populist politicians hope that they can reduce the competition to a single issue -like drug wars, crimes, labor wages, and similar topics. This is gross manipulation and a marketing ploy so as not to address the multi-faceted problem in nation-building. We need no Messiah -for there is only One. What we need are world-class socio-political managers -that will handle the details of the law, justice, inequities, economics, sustainability, and peace and order in our nation with the help of the local leaders and citizens.
By the relentless attacks of the politicians and their surveyors on said strategy -the sovereign citizen is dragged as a herd toward a view that does not respect their freedom as image-bearers of God. But even so – it cannot still factor the contingency of the human act -based on many factors, not included, ignored, not known, or even not understood in such strategy. Those who disdain the sovereignty of God tend to manipulate men in their use of their freedom. If they can get them to be emotional or irrational -as long as they choose the ‘good’ that these Pelagians deemed important -it is right for them to use these methods
And this is here where God and His Sovereignty are also ignored. Men will rely on their horses, chariots, and numbers and discount the spontaneity of men and other beings and materials of this universe-which God have decisive control. God is omniscience and omnipotent. He knows all factors and knows all possibilities and agencies -and He is approachable through the sincerity and faith of humans who believes in His existence, power, and holiness. Holiness -that men cannot approach on their own -unless they regard the righteous lordship of Jesus Christ. But men and even Christians would like to think that politics and surveys are amoral activities and thus not under the Lordship of Jesus. Math and politics are neutral areas -where their god – ‘science’ (in fact pseudo-science) reigns supreme.
So, should we stop doing surveys? No. there are many uses for them within the limits of understanding of what happened to a representative sampling – of actual historical data -like how many died in the Spanish flu, when it started and how long it took for it to peter away; but assigning omniscience or prophetic or seer’s value to such -is idolatrous and sort-of numerologies similar to those used in masonry or hidden knowledge societies. We must peel away the secrecy of said activity -by having it publish in major dailies with the concurrent information we discussed above ; and limit it for the prudent use of resources of political groups only and not to divert or focus it in brainwashing the masses into a bandwagon mentality by its pre-digested results.
Walk by Grace thru Faith 